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Race Predictor
Mathematical reference for race-time prediction across distances, the Riegel power-law model and its empirically-refined Vickers-Vertosick successor. Documents the prediction equations, fatigue-exponent calibration, distance-range applicability, and the substantial systematic biases that arise when prediction is extrapolated outside the calibrated training-distribution domain.
Mathematical reference for race-time prediction across distances, the Riegel power-law model and its empirically-refined Vickers-Vertosick successor. Documents the prediction equations, fatigue-exponent calibration, distance-range applicability, and the substantial systematic biases that arise when prediction is extrapolated outside the calibrated training-distribution domain.
References
- Vickers AJ, Vertosick EA (2016). An empirical study of race times in recreational endurance runners. BMC Sports Sci Med Rehabil 8:26. doi: 10.1186/s13102-016-0052-y · PMID 27570626
- Jones AM, Vanhatalo A (2017). The 'Critical Power' concept: applications to sports performance with a focus on intermittent high-intensity exercise. Sports Med 47 Suppl 1:65-78. doi: 10.1007/s40279-017-0688-0 · PMID 28332113
- Poole DC, Burnley M, Vanhatalo A, Rossiter HB, Jones AM (2016). Critical Power: an important fatigue threshold in exercise physiology. Med Sci Sports Exerc 48:2320-2334. doi: 10.1249/MSS.0000000000000939 · PMID 27031742
- Maunder E, Seiler S, Mildenhall MJ, Kilding AE, Plews DJ (2021). The importance of 'durability' in the physiological profiling of endurance athletes. Sports Med 51:1619-1628. doi: 10.1007/s40279-021-01459-0 · PMID 33545031
- Smyth B, Lawlor A (2022). Internal-external workload decoupling: the key determinant of marathon durability. Int J Sports Physiol Perform. doi: 10.1123/ijspp.2022-0128